Projected growth in CO2 emissions driven by countries outside the OECD

Non - OECD countries keep relying on fossil fuels

The U.S. Energy Information Administration provides a long-term outlook for energy supply, demand, and prices in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). This outlook is centered on the Reference case, which is not a prediction of what will happen, but rather a modeled projection of what might happen given certain assumptions and methodologies. Today, EIA released an annotated summary of the AEO2016 Reference Case—which includes the Clean Power Plan—and a side case without the Clean Power Plan. On the pictures bellow you can see some of the predictions that they made, if you want to see the full report, visit: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/emissions.cfm

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Global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to increase by one-third between 2012 and 2040 in EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case, largely driven by increased energy use in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The continuing increase in total emissions occurs despite a moderate decrease in the carbon intensity (CO2 per unit of energy) of the global energy supply.

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Emissions from OECD countries are in continuous decline and in the 2020 should amount to 37% of total global emissions from energy sources. It is interesting that this energy review of the EIA accounts that OECD country by 2040 will not significantly reduce emissions, that by 2040 could amount to 32% of total global emissions from energy sources. It is expected that continued use of fossil sources and the share of coal in the energy mix will fall from 28% in 2012 to 22% by 2040, the share of liquid fuels from 33% to 30%, while the share of natural gas to rise from 23% to 26% by the year 2040.

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The energy sector has always been dynamic and undoubtedly will continue to change in the future. EIA has tried to make its projections as objective, reliable, and useful as possible. However, the projections in the AEO should be interpreted with a clear understanding of the assumptions that inform them and the limitations inherent to any modeling effort.

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